A Reuters-poll of economists on 12 Nov 2025 found that a strong majority believe the U.S. central bank will execute another rate cut in December. The labour market has cooled, and markets are now pricing in a roughly 64–68 % probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Reuters
Despite inflation still running above target, key indicators suggest persistent slack: job growth is slowing, consumer confidence is down, and the economy is facing structural uncertainties. Reuters+1
Complications:
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Some Fed policymakers caution that inflation remains too high to justify further easing, suggesting potential divergence internally. Reuters+1
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Financial markets are sensitive: a rate cut could shift asset flows, influence the dollar, and affect global investment sentiment.
In summary: The Fed is at a crossroads—balance slowing growth against inflation risks—and markets are picking a side.